Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Interesting Electoral Map

The folks at Real Clear Politics came up with what the electoral college map would look like if there were no toss-ups and to-close-to-call states and it is amazing http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
It shows the electoral college as follows:

McCain 274
Obama 264

It would be a virtual repeat of the infamous 2000 election.
But, I think that while it is on the right track, I will throw in a little different map.
I think that Michigan can go into the Republican corner. Of course, that means that the McCain people have to take a serious look at how to turn Michigan from marginal blue to marginal red.
Adding Michigan increases Sen. John "F--- You" McCain's total electoral votes to 291. Another potential flip is New Hampshire. Yes, a lot has changed but I consider it in this election a swing state. And, Sen. "F--- You" McCain all but staked his whole quest for the Republican nomination for president on the outcome in the Granite State. Another four electoral votes and Sen. "F--- You" McCain is at 295.
All is not bad for the Democrats.
They could and more than likely will get back New Mexico and Iowa. Both states have a combined electoral vote count of 12.
And, for what I think is the real state to watch it is Pennsylvania.
Sure, Sen. Messiah Barack has been in the lead there pretty much since the Democrat nomination was wrapped up in June.
According to Real Clear Politics, Sen. Messiah Barack has an average lead over Sen. "F--- You" McCain of 6.4%. That is slightly over the margin of error when averaged out.
The question is how much of Sen. Messiah Barack's lead is due to the large black vote in Philadelphia? Also, is the "bitter" vote being underestimated in Pennsylvania polling?
I think that it is a combination of the two.
If that is the case, then I think that in reality, Sen. Messiah Barack's lead in the polls in Pennsylvania is marginal at best. It is probably more or less within the margin of error.
If somehow Sen. "F--- You" McCain could pull off an upset in Pennsylvania, well that would be the story of the election.
While I am believing that Sen. Messiah Barack has decided on asking Virginia governor Tim Kaine to be the running mate, there is another choice that would be better for Sen. Messiah Barack. And that would be the Pennsylvania governor "Fast Eddie" Ed Rendel. That would put Pennsylvania out of reach for Sen. "F--- You" McCain.
And for Sen. "F--- You" McCain, I will say that he has two choices. Both governors. Minnesota's Tim Pawlenty or former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Either puts the above states in play.
But what a map! And what if it would end up in the end being like 2000?

No comments: