John Fund, the Wall Street Journal's politcal know-it-all a la Michael Barone, has an interesting article today http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121452433272409083.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries in which he basically says that Sen. John "F--- You" McCain does have a chance, but needs to get focused if he wants to win this election.
One of Sen. "F--- You" McCain's strengths is that he is seen as a reformer. And, he needs to pound that home day in and day out. And, as Mr. Fund points out, he needs to have a focused reform agenda.
A fasicinating point is about the two polls that came out.
One was a Newsweek poll that showed Sen. Messiah Barack ahead of Sen. "F--- You" McCain by 15% and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll showing Sen. Messiah Barack ahead by 12%.
Mr. Fund points out the over sampling of registered voters and padding the Democrat respondents.
And Mr. Fund points out that once people get really focused on the election, generally after Labor Day, the seemingly overwhelming numbers that one can have evaporate. As examples, there is 1976 in which it appeared that then President Ford was going to be drubbed by former Georgia governor, Jimmy Carter. Mr. Ford only lost by two percent.
The ominous is that the election seemed very close in 1980 between former California governor Ronald Reagan and incumbent President Carter. Mr. Reagan won in a landslide.
The Democrats have nominated one of the least experianced people to ever be a major party candidate for president in Sen. Messiah Barack. Two terms in the Illinois state senate and less than one term as a United States senator. While Sen. Messiah Barack is often compared to President John F. Kennedy, here is a fact. When Sen. Kennedy ran for president in 1960, he had been in congress for 12 years. So, Sen. Kennedy was much more versed in the ins and outs and knew how to frame issues. Sen. Messiah Barack is like dung. He is all over the place.
Even former President Carter had time in the Georgia state senate and was governor for a term.
The United States is a center-right nation. Sen. Messiah Barack is an unrepentant left-winger. While many conservatives have a lot of rightful doubts about Sen. McCain, he is much more reflective of the general mood of the United States. And, does not seem like a fringe candidate. Sen. Messiah Barack will be proven to be a fringe candidate.
As Mr. Fund points out, elections are won in the fall, not the summer. But, impressions are made during this time. So far, Sen. Messiah Barack has failed to impress. If the mood of the United States is that we are in a terribly wrong direction, Sen. Messiah Barack should be an easy 20% ahead of Sen. "F--- You" McCain. But, I think that a lot of what ails the United States populace is, and I write this with regret, President Bush.
And, that is why Sen. "F--- You" McCain needs to be his own man and distance himself, respectfully, from President Bush. He has done so on major issues. Not the ones that count and that is important to excite the conservative base.
Sen. Messiah Barack is going to have a hard time convincing those Sen. Hillary Clinton voters back in the Democrat fold. Many supported Sen. Clinton because she had some experiance and did not seem as radical as Sen. Messiah Barack. But, her sin to many a Democrat was that she voted to authorize President Bush to use force to topple the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Husein. And the anti-war crowd did not like that and she could not explain it away. DO NOT let the "kiss" today between those two (YUCK!) fool you. She has no interest in seeing a Sen. Messiah Barack win.
So, the bottom line is this. Sen. "F--- You" McCain is more than still in this race. He needs to get a reform agenda on track. And this shapes up to be another nail biter. Do not take my word for it. Take John Fund's!