Tuesday, January 08, 2008

California May Really Matter This Time

For the Republicans, California may really matter in the primary season.
It looks doubtful that there will even be a prohibitive front-runner at that point.
But, there is something about how Republicans campaign here that will prove their overall grasp of campaigning smart.
Because the California GOP gave up the winner-take-all primary, the Republicans are distributing there delegates by congressional district.
There are 53 congressional districts in California. And 3 delegates each district. In a strange twist, a candidate can win the popular Republican vote, but not the majority of delegates. So, how does a Republican campaign in California?
Well, Mayor Rudy has been in the Bay Area a lot. And I think that he is looking at the Democrat-held districts. Because there are fewer registered Republicans, He believes that he can persuade very few and win many of those districts.
It appears that Mayor Rudy gets it and has a plan.
So far, it does not seem like any of the other candidates are looking that far out. But, they should. There will not be any steam-roller effect. So, there maybe as many as five realistic candidates who could take at least one district.
Here is what some should do.
For Sen. "F--- You" McCain. Concentrate on Riverside County. The lies Palm Springs and the desert with three districts. They are chock-full of retirees and perfect for your candidacy.
For the Rev. Mike, there are a lot of evangelical Christians in the central valley. They may be yours for the picking and can give you maybe a couple of districts and delegates.
Form Mr. Romney, go into the Silicon Valley hard. That is easy pickings. Then look at what is left, who looks the weakest and in for the kill. It is possible that both Sen. "F--- You" McCain and the Rev. Mike may not have the money to put a strong challenge anywhere in California, but they should. We are not that predictable and running in each district, anywhere can help you win the lion's share of delegates.
I could not tell you who will win, But a guess is that if Mayor Rudy survives to California, he can get the majority. But, no one can walk away from California with a majority of delegates. And that will add more fun to an already unbelievable race that we are having now.

1 comment:

Pat Jenkins said...

are the dems going to divvy the delegates the same way 64?... and yes cali will be a big player this year... this could get fun. too bad nobody who i had hoped would win has!!