Monday, January 07, 2008

And The New Hampshire Winners Are. . .

OK, this is it.
In less than an hour the residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire have the fate of the free world in their hands as they are the first residents in the United States to vote in a presidential primary.
Now that some of the histrionics are done, what is really important are the predictions for the fateful primary tomorrow in New Hampshire.
So, without further ado, here they are:

REPUBLICANS:

Mitt Romney 35%
John McCain 31%
Rudy Giuliani 10%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson 6%
Duncan Hunter 1%

DEMOCRATS:

Barack Obama 40%
Hilary Clinton 30%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 3%
OTHER 1%

The DDBMSM is so pushing the McCain line, but the "independents" are going to vote in the Democrat primary and for Sen. Obama. The real story will be how Sen. Obama will get the most votes of any candidate. Period.
Another factor why Mr. Romney will win in the GOP primary is that New Hampshire is slowly becoming like Massachusetts without the high taxes. The Democrats control the state legislature and the governor's mansion. While it went marginally for President Bush in 2000, it went for Sen. Kerry in 2004. And it was in 2006 that the Democrats took the state legislature. Just recently, New Hampshire passed and Democrat governor Lynch signed a same-sex "civil union" bill. Who would have thought about that just a few short years ago?
And keep this in mind.
Two nights in a row. Two debates. In the first, all the Republican candidates ganged-up on one-Mitt Romney. He came out of that standing. John "F--- You" McCain showed why is the the Vietnam era version of former Sen. Bob Dole. Mean, petulant, jealous. Next night, it was Mr. Romney who came out swinging. Had the Rev. Mike stuttering. Had Sen. "F--- You" McCain bumbling. Gave no quarter to Mayor Rudy or Fred Thompson. Mr. Romney won that debate. Even a Frank Luntz focus group agreed. And, it changed some minds.
For the Democrats, Sen. Obama is really hitting Sen Clinton hard. Almost making her cry today http://drudgereport.com. Losing two in a row is bad for Sen. Clinton. But, DO NOT RULE HER OUT! She is a fighter behind those tears and she will hang on until February 5, Super Duper Tuesday.
And, a final thought.
How do these pundits even get what is going on in either party? A month ago, it was Mitt and Hilary, no doubt about it. Then the Rev. Mike caught fire. Now, he is the "voice" of the GOP. And Sen. Obama. He did not get here by a few appearances with Oprah Winfrey.
It is a fluid race in both parties, more in the Republican field. So, the Rev. Mike will win one, then Romney, maybe McCain, no one knows really week to week. Hell, day by day. After Iowa, we were told Sen. "F--- You" McCain would blow Mr. Romney right back to Massachusetts. And, after Sunday night, it may very well be the other way around.
I am not a pundit. I just look at what is going on. Talk to real people, not fellow pundits, party hacks or campaign hacks for any candidate. Read around the blogs. Get a real feeling. All I do is write what I think. But, that does not make me Nostradamus. Nor any pollster for that matter.
We have an obligation to vote, and we all should. Lets participate in the election instead of letting pundits and pollsters do it for us.

1 comment:

Pat Jenkins said...

you called the independents for obama 64. i am keeping an eye on this and hoping. i believe you may be right!!!