In reaction to a comment left on my analysis of the Republican presidential race over the weekend, in fairness I will now comment on the race among the Democrats for the 2008 presidential nod.
Did anyone see the photo of a haggard Sen. Hilary Clinton (D-New York) in today's Drudge Report http://drudgereport.com? One has to hope that if she were to win the whole thing it can clear up some of those worry lines, but read on.
I feel like the only conservative to cite that Sen. Clinton may not be the Democrat nominee for president. I have been saying that there is something about Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) that will draw more from Democratic voters. And, it appears to be happening.
The Democrats are not like the Republicans have been. There is not any kind of anointing among Democrat voters. Thus, that is why after all these months of Sen. Clinton having over the top poll numbers and people thinking that all she needs is the tiara.
So, it appears that Sen. Obama should win the Iowa caucus. And worse for Sen. Clinton, former Sen. John Edwards may very well pull in second, leaving her at third place.
And, just a little advice from a Republican for Sen. Clinton. I think she should lock former President Clinton up somewhere at least until the Iowa caucuses are finished. It does not help when Mr. Clinton comments that he is surprised at how well she is doing in Iowa and that she may lose that state.
Anyway, it appears that Sen. Obama is the anti-establishment candidate and this time may very well be in the catbird seat rolling into New Hampshire. There, independents can vote in the Democrat primary and I think there is going to be a lot more interest from independent voters in the Democrat primary versus the Republican primary. And, that should help Sen. Obama. Here I think is the beginning of the end of the John Edwards candidacy. Democrat voters in New Hampshire are not going to get into the "Two Americas" that Mr. Edwards is basing his whole campaign on. And, after New Hampshire is South Carolina in which Sen. Obama will walk away with that state.
Where does that leave the vastly second tier of Democrat candidates?
Oddly enough, I think that Sen. Joe Biden may emerge as the top of the second bananas. New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, who should be the front runner, is fading quickly and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn) is not much of a factor. And, no doubt that congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) will get his fair share of the fringe vote, but as he was in 2004, Mr. Kucinich be no factor, just a gnat.
Sen Biden may be able to keep going just a little more, but even he will fade away.
So, in the end, it will be a three person race. Sens. Cilinton and Obama and Mr. Edwards.
In the end, I really believe that Sen. Obama is much more inspiring to Democrats and he will be the Democrat nominee for president.
Imagine that. A Mormon on the Republican side against the first black on the Democrat side. Now that is the kind of election that is going to be very interesting.
2 comments:
do a little predicting for me 64.... obama's running mate? how about hillary?
That is a tough one. There is no doubt that Sen. Obama would have to make some amends with the Democrat establishment. But, forget Hilary. She has already been second banana to Bill. Maybe Democrat governor or former governor. Tom Vilsack of Iowa is one or, go for broke and ask current New Mexico governor Bill Richardson. If, by chance, Hilary pulls this off, she will NOT pick Obama.
Post a Comment